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Topic: Disney Rolling The Dice In May 2019 Post Reply | Post New Topic
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Stephen Churay
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 5:01pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Ok, Disney is releasing AVENGERS 4 on May
3rd, 2019. It's been announced that STAR
WARS IX, is releasing on May 24th, 2019.

Now, the budget for the next two AVENGERS
films is a HALF A BILLION DOLLARS EACH! To
break even, it's generally thought that a
film needs to make double it's budget.
That gives the fourth Avengers film, 21
days to break the billion dollar mark to
break even. Not a big deal for a Marvel
film, even if it's subpar. But, it doesn't
leave it a lot of room to make any real
money before Disney steps on its own toes
with STAR WARS IX.

In any case, if you don't own Disney
stock, buy some for Christmas 2018 and
sell at Christmas 2020.

Link
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Doug Jones
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 5:52pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

That gives the fourth Avengers film, 21 
days to break the billion dollar mark to 
break even.

--

False.
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John Byrne

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Joined: 11 May 2005
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 8:18pm | IP Logged | 3 post reply

False.

•••

SO helpful.

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Peter Martin
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 8:19pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

These films make a huge chunk of their grosses in the first two weekends, so 21 days is plenty of time, plus who knows what happens when both Avengers 4 and Episode 9 are out? Is it unfeasible that they occupy the top two spots at the box office and both rake in tonnes of cash at the same time? I don't think so.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 8:22pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

What I find slightly disconcerting is Disney squeezing the sponge so readily with Star Wars that they're upping the release rates. We used to get one every three years (with decades between trilogies!). Not content with one a year, Disney are going to have two out within 6 months between December 2017 and May 2018. That's really testing the limits of fan appetite.
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Stephen Churay
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 8:34pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

While, you're correct, it's false, as the
fourth Avengers film will still be on a
few screens, do you honestly believe that
any film has a chance to make substantial
box office revenue against a Star Wars
film?

My point was to express my shock that
Disney appears to be potentially hurting
their box office revenue by releasing two
tent pole franchise films so close
together. Especially when the number of
butts you can put in seats is actually
declining.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 9:07pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

Do I honestly believe any film has a chance to make substantial box office revenue against a Star Wars film?

Yes, I do. If we look at the biggest opening weekends in May, Marvel is top of the heap. It's been over 10 years since a Star Wars film opened in May, but even so.

As for two tentpole films so close together, Avengers will have three full weekends before it has to compete with Star Wars. If we look at Civil War as a guide, that film made around 90% of its total US gross in that time.
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Matt Reed
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 9:24pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

 Stephen Churay wrote:
That gives the fourth Avengers film, 21 
days to break the billion dollar mark to 
break even.

THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS will earn $1 billion worldwide by the end of this week: 14 days.  In 2015 AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON crossed $1 billion in 24 days and went on to earn another $405 mil worldwide by the time it left theaters: 161 days in release. Link
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John Byrne

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Joined: 11 May 2005
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Posted: 25 April 2017 at 10:06pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

I so miss the days when we went to movies we hoped we'd like, watched 'em, and gave not so much as a single thought to how much they pulled in at the box office.
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Wil Overton
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 1:15am | IP Logged | 10 post reply

My franchise made more than your franchise. Your franchise sucks!
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Joe Smith
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 2:15am | IP Logged | 11 post reply

One variable being just how much a movie will cost in 2 years.
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Doug Jones
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 2:28am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

Almost all reports of AVENGERS 3 & 4 budget stem from a February quote of Pinewood Atlanta Studios chief Dan Cathy, who said his facility would be “hosting a 1-billion dollar film production.” It’s not unreasonable to infer that he was talking about his studio’s relationship with Marvel, but the immediate leap the press took from that comment to “Each AVENGERS movie will cost $500 million dollars” is—at best—a very big stretch. ANT-MAN 2 and CAPTAIN MARVEL are also slated to shoot there, and only Disney knows how that package was developed and priced out.




Stephen: My point was to express my shock that Disney appears to be potentially hurting their box office revenue by releasing two tent pole franchise films so close together. Especially when the number of butts you can put in seats is actually declining.


But they aren’t being released that close together. INFINITY WAR’S box office will be stalling by the time STAR WARS arrives.


On May 4 2012, THE AVENGERS opened at #1 to $207m. Four weeks later, on Memorial Day weekend. it dropped to #2 ($36m) against Sony’s MIB3.


On May 1, 2015, AGE OF ULTRON opened at #1 to $191m, four weeks later falling to #4 ($28m) by Memorial Day against (also Disney’s) TOMORROWLAND, (43m) which tanked.


On May 6, 2016 CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR (aka AVENGERS 2.5) opened to $179m, falling to #4 ($20m) by the holiday against #1 X-MEN APOCALYPSE ($65m).


Projecting out: INFINITY WAR will undoubtedly open huge, but it almost certainly won’t be #1 by Memorial Day weekend, with or without STAR WARS. It most likely won’t be #2, because by now everybody knows Netflix is just around the corner. The largest percentage of money will be made before week 4.


So it looks like Disney has decided not to cede that 2019 wide open #1 spot to Sony, Fox, or even its own low-voltage fare like TOMORROWLAND. Instead, they’re going to put two surefire $200m-openers a month out from each other and try to put a vise grip on the box office for eight straight weeks. On Memorial Day weekend, two of the top four films will be Disney films taking up 40% of your multiplex seats. STAR WARS will not be competition for INFINITY WAR. Both films will be working toward the same goal. 


You are correct: movie attendance is declining, and Disney has decided to grab an even larger slice of the smaller pie. With ESPN— it’s biggest profit-maker—losing subscribers and Netflix in control of the streaming market, I expect the company to continue this strategy.

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Peter Martin
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 7:24am | IP Logged | 13 post reply

The speed at which films make their money these days, and the curve of how the gross declines, is a victory for the studios over common-sense and quality.

Marketing, hype and big opening weekends trumps considerations of quality. You'd think that word-of-mouth would still have a big impact on a film's performance, perhaps even more so with the internet and sites such as rotten tomatoes that allow an immediate oversight of the consensus of opinion, but instead we just get the latest leaden instalment in each franchise raking in the cash. For example, I'd have thought the Transformers franchise would have crashed and burned long ago, but people are apparently happy to keep buying tickets no matter how bad the previous film was.

Edited to add -- and no matter how bad the current one is based on word of mouth!


Edited by Peter Martin on 26 April 2017 at 7:25am
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Stephen Churay
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 10:17am | IP Logged | 14 post reply

Has anyone noticed that major movie
theater chains are installing really comfy
recliners in there theaters?

(Trust me, this is relevant.)

We have three major theater chairs in my
city. All of them here, are installing
these. I have to assume, considering the
market I live in, that this is already
happening in other areas as well.
The last time I went to the movies, I ran
into the GM. He overheard me grumble about
how these giant chairs have brought about
assigned seating. He says it's necessary
as the new recliners literally cut the
number of seats, in HALF.

While I'm sure the ticket price will be
raised, less seats, equal less box
office. If s movie is really good, it
should have legs enough to earn after 3
weeks. You always face competition, but
why be your own competition in this case?
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John Popa
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 10:41am | IP Logged | 15 post reply

My local theater has the big chairs and assigned seating. I don't care about the size of the chair so much but I love picking a seat as far away from everyone else as possible!

Both those movies will do a billion dollars regardless of whatever else is happening in movie theaters, including each other.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 11:27am | IP Logged | 16 post reply

You always face competition, but 
why be your own competition in this case?
----------------------------
Let's look it another way. There are 12 months in the year and only a few of those months are optimal for tentpole pics.

Disney has Frozen 2 at the end of November in 2019. This is their big Christmas film for that year. If they moved SW to a Christmas release slot we would be having the same discussion about competing against themselves.

Incredibles 2 arrives in the middle of June 2019.

The Lion King remake hits in July 2019. So does a Spider-Man film.

I'm assuming Disney sees May as the optimal month for both Avengers and Star Wars. So they've put them as far apart in May as they can.

When would you release them? Bear in mind Captain Marvel is in March 2019. Should they really go for April or August for one of their two biggest films of the year?
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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 1:03pm | IP Logged | 17 post reply

While I'm sure the ticket price will be
raised, less seats, equal less box
office. If s movie is really good, it
should have legs enough to earn after 3
weeks. You always face competition, but
why be your own competition in this case?

------

The real competition is the rise of the home theater and the quick
turnaround of films to Blu/DVD and PPV. If you haven't seen the movie
in the first month, you only need to wait two months to watch it at home.
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David Miller
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 2:13pm | IP Logged | 18 post reply

I suspect the true gamble lies elsewhere. While Disney and Marvel have scheduled three MCU movies a year for the next few years, the way the release dates fall means between next Friday and a year from next Friday, Marvel will release FIVE movies set in the MCU. 

For all we know, superhero movies are a bubble which may never burst, but I'm sure Disney/Marvel is concerned about hitting the saturation point. When the MCU was started, there were concerns that moviegoers wouldn't respond to a ongoing series of interconnected films. Now I guess the question is, will they turn up every other month? 

What's the limit?  
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Doug Jones
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 2:37pm | IP Logged | 19 post reply

MICHAEL: The real competition is the rise of the home theater and the quick turnaround of films to Blu/DVD and PPV. If you haven't seen the movie in the first month, you only need to wait two months to watch it at home.

--

Yes. Marvel movies (like most tentpoles) consistently open big, then drop to 30m or below in four weeks no matter what's opening at #1. For Disney, the only gamble is not having anything big to open on the holiday, when the Marvel film is in decline. And this strategy starts next year, with HAN SOLO opening four weeks after A:IW.

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Matt Reed
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Posted: 26 April 2017 at 10:56pm | IP Logged | 20 post reply

 Doug Jones wrote:
...this strategy starts next year, with HAN SOLO opening four weeks after A:IW.

Right.  It's not as if two films opening wide by the same studio in the same month or 4 week period is anything new.  They all (the studios) realize that the money is made in the first 14-21 days and after that, it's a crapshoot.  So what's the issue with the same studio releasing one at the beginning of the month and one at the end?  They understand not only their audience, but the current trends at the box office.  It's just smart business.

I'd also add that that 2.5X multiplier is outdated in this era.  That was established when returns were focused on domestic box office as the sole resource for making money back on a film.  That's outdated and antiquated in this day and age.  Box office is still important, but it's not the be all, end all for any film.  AND it doesn't take into account international monies which, as we all know now, is huge and why I try to frame my box office updates in terms of international returns as well as domestic. 
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