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Steve De Young
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3472
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 10:03am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

You seem to be suffering from the persistent misapprehension that Trump’s win was based on HOW MANY voters turned out. Not so. It was WHERE they turned out. And it will be the same in November. 
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Actually, I made reference specifically to key battleground states later in my post, JB.  What states does Bloomberg bring to the table?  New York?  Was that in doubt?

But it is about who didn't show up.  In 2016, what Clinton lacked was the African-American vote and the actual left, the Bernie supporters.  Do you think Bloomberg can turn out either of those constituencies?  Because he has about the worst record on race relations and community policing in the country (rivaled only possibly by Pete).

And I'll throw in, in the Midwest, the working class.  Trump's appeal to them is bizarre and unintelligible to me, but do you really think Bloomberg is going to be able to appeal to them and draw them away?  He isn't performing well with the union vote in polling.

So, agreed, its not turnout over all that's important, its turnout in particular places.  Its motivating people in particular places.  But I think you'll have a hard time making the case that while Bloomberg can't turn people out in the nation as a whole, he can in PA and Wisconsin.
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John Byrne

Imaginary X-Man

Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 121600
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 10:54am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Due to the lunacy of the Electoral College, it’s not a case of what a candidate “brings to the table” as much as it is what s/he can acquire. Trump didn’t come pre-packaged with all those red states.
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Brad Wilders
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 15 December 2008
Posts: 145
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 11:47am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

I think you are both right.  Remember, Trump's margin in several swing states (e.g. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan) was less than 1%.  If Clinton's campaign had motivated more D voters to turn out that could have made the difference in those states.*

By the same token, if she had been able to sway more independently-mined voters who decided which candidate to support at the last minute, that could have made the difference too.  The ability to appeal to these "undecideds", who may not be voting along party lines, is an equally important strategy.  Unfortunately, her deep unpopularity made that difficult.    


 
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John Byrne

Imaginary X-Man

Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 121600
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 12:13pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Assuming the blue states stay blue, the Dems have to hit the red states with everything they’ve got—except they don’t have anything the red states want. Trump has convinced those voters not only that the Dems are the font of all evil, but that he really has made this country “better”.

And remember, the hardest thing to get anyone to say, even if it’s just to themselves is “I was wrong.”

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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 11077
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 12:28pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Unless a long-time red state has since 2016 undergone a
demographic change not yet observed in any voting since
then, it's likely any really red state is staying that way.
The known battlegrounds are all that could be up for grabs.
Trump received the same amount of votes in Wisconsin as did
Romney earlier. But Hillary Clinton tallied 230,000 fewer
than Obama, and thus her close loss of the state. Whoever
the Dems end up with, they'd better damned well hope she or
he can massively energize their own registered voters --
particularly if, as seems a sure thing, Trump's Republicans
are far more fired up even than they were four years ago.
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Michael Casselman
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 14 January 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 1039
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 12:51pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

If Bloomberg were to be the candidate and lose to Trump, it would be quite a blow to the doomsayers that predict Trump suspending the 2-term limits, for the reason Vinny noted earlier. Hard to get behind the messaging warning of a clandestine 3rd term run when you're putting (or have put) all your energy behind a guy who's done exactly that.
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Brad Wilders
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 15 December 2008
Posts: 145
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 1:07pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

Neither the President (nor Congress) can suspend the term limit.  Its a constitutional limitation on the office. 
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John Byrne

Imaginary X-Man

Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 121600
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 1:18pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

I’m in favor of term limits, but I was amused, ruefully, when Bloomberg sought his third term and some opponents complained he was “taking away the voter’s rights.” Actually, it’s term limits that do that!
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David Allen Perrin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 15 April 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 3078
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 4:07pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

How to make it happen? Stuff I’d like to see...

• Abolish Capital Punishment
• Eliminate Private Prisons
• Mandate Paper Ballots for Elections
• Automatic Voter Registration when you turn 18
• Bring back Glass-Stegall Act 
• Raise Taxes on the Wealthy - fund new social programs, secure existing ones with the revenue
• $15 hourly Federal Minimum Wage
• Guaranteed paid maternity leave for both parents
• Free Public College
• Eliminate existing Student debt
• Legalize Marijuana Federally - expunge current sentences of those jailed for possession.
• ABOLISH unlimited Spending in politics - End Citizens United
• Eliminate electoral college.
• Allow felons to vote.  They are still citizens and are effected by policies made that they have no say in.
• End public schools being funded by property taxes.


Vote for the old white haired guy.  Bernie. Not the other ones....


Edited by David Allen Perrin on 12 February 2020 at 6:15pm
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David Allen Perrin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 15 April 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 3078
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 4:09pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Michelle as VP?

Michelle Obama doesn’t want anything to do with any of us any more.  And I don’t blame her.
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Tim O Neill
Byrne Robotics Security


Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 10340
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 8:43pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply



I'm voting for Bernie!

I think a Bernie/Bloomberg ticket would be a winner.



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Joe Zhang
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 12391
Posted: 12 February 2020 at 11:51pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

"I think a Bernie/Bloomberg ticket would be a winner."

Cue theme song from the "Odd Couple". 
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