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Steve De Young
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3472
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 12:36pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Oops.  The epidemiologist whose estimate the 2.2 million deaths worst case scenario was based on has drastically revised the death rate of Covid-19.  He was predicting 500,000 deaths in Britain if nothing was done.  Now he's projecting 20,000 after one day of lockdown.  Applying that math to his estimate here in the US, that would be 88,000 deaths.  And part of his findings is that a little more than half of those people would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to underlying illnesses or age.

Meanwhile, by the end of this week, 10 million people in the US will have become unemployed.

LINK
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Peter Martin
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Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 12551
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 1:00pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

He is predicting that a strict lockdown if maintained will save lives. Where's the oops part?
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Greg McPhee
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 25 August 2004
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 4311
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 1:01pm | IP Logged | 3 post reply

Steven, 10 million dead is an even worse metric.
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Steven Myers
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 10 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 5319
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 2:41pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

How accurate do you think the numbers from China are? The death rate elsewhere appears much more severe.
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Greg McPhee
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Joined: 25 August 2004
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 4311
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 2:52pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

That's an interesting one. I'm just watching a programme on the BBC, and they are saying that because China just locked down as (and I quote) "Only China could", that they stemmed or stopped the death toll.

Italy now has another problem, and my aunt who lives in Italy touched on this a few weeks back. A number of people in the North fled South thinking it would take them away from the virus. Now, we are seeing death rates there.
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Steve De Young
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Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3472
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 3:03pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

I guess you didn't follow what he said.  They got the model wrong.  The death rate is far lower than they thought.  They had the numerator, the deaths, right.  They had the denominator, the number of cases, wrong exponentially.  This isn't me saying this, this is the guy who ran the original model we've all been using saying this.

The new model says that if we had done nothing, 88,000 people would have died in the US.  More than half of whom would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to age or illness.

And we haven't done nothing.  We've done a lot.  Meaning we've already massively shrunken that number.  

This also means that China isn't lying or wrong about the figures.  Their figures correspond to the new model.  Their figures aren't wrong, our model was wrong.
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Eric Sofer
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Joined: 31 January 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 3646
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 3:56pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

Steve D.Y.: "The new model says that if we had done nothing, 88,000 people would have died in the US.  More than half of whom would have been dead by the end of the year anyway due to age or illness"

And those 44,000 will still die by the end of the year anyhow... it's not a "quota" by Nature. We just don't need the extra deaths by doing naught.

Again, with no insult, I fail to see the point you're trying to make. Might you please explain?
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Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 12551
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:18pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply


I guess you didn't follow what he said. 
----------------------------------------------
No, Steve, I think it's you that hasn't followed what he's said.

Here is what he has said:


  •  I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19
  • This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
  • My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
  • Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 27200
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:41pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

Looks like Steve is playing the ol' "eh, they would've died anyway"
game.

Fuck you, Steve.

Edited by Brian Miller on 26 March 2020 at 5:41pm
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Brandon Frye
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 November 2004
Posts: 1206
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:42pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any mass shootings for awhile. 


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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 27200
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:47pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Anyone that's just blowing this off needs to watch this video.

Except you, Steve, since it's ok by you if nothing more is done and we
just let everybody die.

LINK

This is fucking real.
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 27200
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 5:48pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public
gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any
mass shootings for awhile

********

Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right
now?
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