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Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 12562
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 7:31am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Now that the experts are revising those estimates, why do so many people insist on disbelieving them?
---------------------------------------------
I have no problem with scientists revising projections based on incoming data.

I do have a problem with this article projecting 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the US, because it does not fit with the data available.

The US has a population of 330 million. If 20k die, that is 0.0061% of the population.

It were to use that same % on Italy, which has a population of 60.5 million, then 0.0061% of the population is 3666. But there are already over 10,000 dead in Italy.

0.0061% of the population of Spain is under 3000 dead. But there are already over 6000 dead in Spain.

I think this is a reasonable basis for being sceptical about the numbers in that article in the WSJ.

Regarding the Diamond Princess: yes, the average age of a cruise liner is probably above average. That is a valid argument to estimate the mortality rate lower. Maybe the true rate is 1% or 0.5%. The Diamond Princess remains a useful gauge precisely because it allowed nearly everyone involved to be tested, which is much better information than we currently have with any other sample group.


Edited by Peter Martin on 29 March 2020 at 7:31am
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Michael Roberts
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 13160
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 9:02am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Hereís some numbers:

The first COVID-19 death in the US was on February 29th. The 1000th death was on Thursday. The 2000th death was on Saturday. 

Does anyone here think the infections have peaked and the deaths wonít continue to rise on an exponential scale? You donít need a math degree to see estimates of 20k-40k deaths are extremely low. 
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Doug Centers
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 February 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 4174
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 9:20am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

Deaths we're seeing now were contracted up to 3 or 4 weeks ago. Hopefully the steps we are taking now will start dropping these numbers, but we wont really know for about a month.
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Eric Sofer
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 31 January 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 3661
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 11:45am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

And now it's come to this...

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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 7886
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 4:03pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Country singer Joe Diffie has died from coronavirus complications. 

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William Costello
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 30 August 2012
Location: United States
Posts: 494
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 6:50pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

John Prine has also been hospitalized with COVID-19:  https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/john-prine-cov id-19-symptoms-974909/
"Prineís health issues over the past few decades have been well-documented, as has the singerís comebacks: In the late-Nineties, Prine was diagnosed with squamous cell cancer in his neck; after rounds of radiation, surgery and a year of rehabilitation, Prine returned to music, his deepened voice a battle scar from the cancer fight. In 2013, Prine announced he had an operable cancer, ďnon-small cell carcinoma,Ē in his left lung, briefly sidelining him."
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James Johnson
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 March 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 1007
Posted: 02 April 2020 at 7:15pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

This shit is becoming a bad [FILL IN 1970s BROADCAST NETWORK] mini-series that was produced by Irwin Allen.

What else can happen?

LINK (Washington Post)
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4149
Posted: 02 April 2020 at 8:06pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

We live in a world where Rush Limbaugh twists truth of the virus into lethal lies after getting the Presidential Medal of Freedom but the U.S. Navy fires Capt. Brett Crozier for providing truth and facts to protect and save the lives of his crew from the virus. 

A world that rewards facilitating death by those holding massive church services while vilifying the people who do whatever they can to save lives... incredible.

-C!






Edited by Charles Valderrama on 02 April 2020 at 8:07pm
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Philippe Negrin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 August 2007
Location: France
Posts: 2405
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 5:57am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

We lost the great Argentinian artist Juan Gimenez because of the  Covid. I guess he was not as famous in the states as in Europe but he is a great loss. I canít post images here due to my computer having broken down but Iíd advise you to look for his works : Notably in the Heavy Metal style and the amazing Metabarons series, a huge loss.
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Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 3844
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 6:14am | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Gimenez was a giant in fantasy/sci fi illustration. Definitely look for his
color image work.

Edited by Eric Ladd on 03 April 2020 at 6:14am
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 27238
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 10:22am | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Our state finally mandated a stay-at-home order yesterday. You'd never
know it judging by the volume of traffic going to work this morning.
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Bill Collins
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 26 May 2005
Location: England
Posts: 10928
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 11:18am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

My sister is a nurse at Walsall Manor Hospital, one of
her fellow nurses has died today after fighting Covid19
for a week, very worrying and tragic times.
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