Active Topics | Member List | Search | Help | Register | Login
The John Byrne Forum MOBILE
Byrne Robotics | The John Byrne Forum << Prev Page of 45 Next >>
Topic: COVID-19 Virus Post Reply | Post New Topic
Author
Message
James Johnson
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 March 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 1008
Posted: 26 March 2020 at 6:17pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

If there is a silver lining anywhere to be found in this, with all public 
gatherings currently stopped, we at least won't have to read about any 
mass shootings for awhile

********

Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right 
now?

**********

Because they are losers.
Back to Top profile | search
 
Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 3846
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:51am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

The oven is cleaning.

Fake news kills
Back to Top profile | search e-mail
 
Larry Gil
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 09 November 2005
Location: Canada
Posts: 656
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 10:16am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

You can't trust any statistical data that comes out of China. Period.
Back to Top profile | search
 
Steve De Young
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3472
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 11:12am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Wow.  So, I came here to post about some studies, from the same people who did the original ones, are now revising the deadliness of the disease drastically downwards, and apparently, this makes me a terrible person.

How is the idea that there were a lot more asymptomatic infections than we knew, and thus the virus is a lot less deadly than we thought, bad news exactly?  How does pointing out that the same experts are now revising their death estimates downward make me terrible exactly?

And why are so many of you so emotionally invested in this being as terrible as possible?


Edited by Steve De Young on 27 March 2020 at 11:13am
Back to Top profile | search
 
Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 12565
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 12:04pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Steve, when the very person you posted about literally says "Our lethality estimates remain unchanged", it doesn't necessarily make you terrible, it just makes what you are saying incorrect. 

Furthermore, you are repeatedly incorrect, as this is the second time I've posted this quote and yet you re-state your misinformation that the virus is less deadly than previously thought.

Back to Top profile | search
 
Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 3846
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 1:59pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

Steve, in general people could be sensitive to any information that tries
to downplay the severity or danger of this virus. One very vocal idiot
does it daily on television and seems to be setting the stage to start
blaming others for his inadequate response. I donít think people are
emotionally invested in this being as horrible as possible, but rather
emotionally invested and opposed to anyone suggesting it wonít be as
bad as we think.

I think it is going to be very bad and hope Iím wrong, but when bloggers
change their tune after getting the virus, people die from it after calling
it ďmass hysteriaĒ and sad stories of underestimating its severity leading
to inadequate response, people are on edge.
Back to Top profile | search e-mail
 
Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 10882
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:09pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

From the Wall Street Journal:

>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be
too high by orders of magnitude. <<

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-
coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464



 QUOTE:
If itís true that the novel coronavirus would kill
millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines,
then the extraordinary measures being carried out in
cities and states around the country are surely
justified. But thereís little evidence to confirm that
premiseóand projections of the death toll could plausibly
be orders of magnitude too high. [...] This does not make
Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and
across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed
health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is
a far less severe problem than one that kills two
million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions
around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide
decisions now is critical.


This piece is subscription-only, so I will not reproduce
it all.
Back to Top profile | search
 
David Allen Perrin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 15 April 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 2928
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:27pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

You know how in many Sci-Fi movies humanity responds to the aftermath of an attack by a malevolent alien species by banding together to change they way we treat each other so we as a society can seek mutual betterment? 

COVID 19 is that alien.  And if this ends with our society even slightly resembling what it was before it arrived....we better learn how to operate our lives differently.  Specifically we better figure out that our society is only as safe and secure as the least protected person among us.




Edited by David Allen Perrin on 27 March 2020 at 2:28pm
Back to Top profile | search
 
Brandon Frye
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 November 2004
Posts: 1206
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 2:29pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply


 QUOTE:
Then why are so many people buying up all the guns and ammo right 
now?

Because people, egged on by the media & politicians, are descending into panic mode and fear a collapsing of society (anarchy, looting, riots, etc). This follows with a fear that law enforcement will be stretched too thin to protect people and a need to arm up to protect themselves

I'm not saying it's right or justified. I'm saying it's the cause-and-effect of creating a climate of fear and panic


Edited by Brandon Frye on 28 March 2020 at 4:26pm
Back to Top profile | search
 
Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 12565
Posted: 27 March 2020 at 3:48pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Regarding the WSJ article: without a doubt the number of true infections is much larger than the number of positively identified cases. Most countries do not have anywhere near capacity to test at the moment.

I think the WSJ is making wild assumptions though about the number of infected in the US. The pattern of serious/critical cases shows hotspots in certain specific areas (most notably, New York). I don't think this is consistent with 6 million infections by 9 March. The rate at which this proliferates is possibly doubling the number of infections every two to three days -- which means it would have have peaked in terms of infections already. The pattern of serious cases suggests the viirus is still working its way inwards from those coastal hotspots.

Even better contrary evidence is in the form of the Diamond Princess. It had 3711 passengers. More than 3000 tests were performed. 712 tested positive. So far 10 have died. That is a mortality rate of 1.4%. This seriously undermines the WSJ's suggestion that the mortality rate is a fraction of a percent.
Back to Top profile | search
 
Steve De Young
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3472
Posted: 28 March 2020 at 7:47am | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Peter, the WSJ article says exactly what I've been saying as have a number of other scientists.

Your Diamond Princess example doesn't apply.  Its a cruise ship, not a scientific sample of the general population.  What is the average age of a cruise ship passenger, do you imagine?  Higher or lower than the national average in the US?  I'd bet a fair degree higher.  And that's just one way where the sample differs from the general population.

And if, among a group of older and therefore more at risk people, the death rate is only 1.4%, then how is it unbelievable that among the general population with a lower average age it might be half that or less?

We all trusted the scientists on their original estimates from the data, and anyone who doubted them was rightly informed that they don't have the credentials to disagree with the experts.  Now that the experts are revising those estimates, why do so many people insist on disbelieving them?

I can pretty much tell you why.  Because the media has everyone terrified.  They got everyone to comply with lockdown (which was important for at least 2 weeks) by telling them that if they didn't they'd murder grandma.  They got everyone to invest emotionally.  So now that they're trying to unemotionally communicate a new set of facts, no one wants to risk murdering grandma if the new estimates turn out to be incorrect.
Back to Top profile | search
 
Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 3846
Posted: 29 March 2020 at 7:04am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

A very good explanation regarding the virus mutation that lead to our
current pandemic.

The Perfect Virus
Back to Top profile | search e-mail
 

<< Prev Page of 45 Next >>
  Post Reply | Post New Topic |

Forum Jump

 Active Topics | Member List | Search | Help | Register | Login

You are currently viewing the MOBILE version of the site.
CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL SITE