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Michael Roberts
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 14812
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| Posted: 12 August 2020 at 5:02pm | IP Logged | 1
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I see a lot of talk about the VP debate and how she will murder him but...is the VP debate that big a deal? Not sure I've ever seen any coverage of one over here. Is it seen as important over there?
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I'm tuning in just to see where Karen Pence sits on stage so that her husband won't have to be alone with a woman during the debate.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8841
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| Posted: 12 August 2020 at 7:13pm | IP Logged | 2
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Democracy is TRUMPED once again.
********************************
I seriously doubt that will happen. Because if it does happen, democracy is not just trumped, but it's dead. He'll set himself up as "President for life".
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Geoffrey Langford
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 December 2013
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 235
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 7:22am | IP Logged | 3
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Looks like Biden has found his Sarah Palin...
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132282
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 7:23am | IP Logged | 4
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Looks like Biden has found his Sarah Palin...•• That statement makes no sense at all.
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James Woodcock
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 7612
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 7:24am | IP Logged | 5
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Looks like Biden has found his Sarah Palin..
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Really? Really???
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132282
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 7:24am | IP Logged | 6
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Democracy is TRUMPED once again.******************************** I seriously doubt that will happen. Because if it does happen, democracy is not just trumped, but it's dead. He'll set himself up as "President for life". •• See you in November!
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Wilson Mui
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4525
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 7:36am | IP Logged | 7
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I think a Trump victory is pausible also.
Hillary had the same lead as Biden does
now. Apparently Trump is trying to slow
down mail delivery to prevent people from
voting by mail. He is also trying to put
Kanye West on the ballot in the hopes of
diverting black voters from Biden.
Edited by Wilson Mui on 13 August 2020 at 7:36am
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8841
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 8:09am | IP Logged | 8
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Actually, Hillary NEVER had this type of lead over the orange one in 2016. Only once, early July, did she ever hit 50% in the polls. Most of the time she was hovering around 47% with the other one around 43%. Biden has consistently maintained a 6% or higher spread once he became the only one in the race.
Rasmussen, in 2016, generally had the race tight, usually within 3 points. This year the smallest lead Biden has had has been double that. The average lead Hillary had in 2016 was about 4 points, Biden's average has been about 7.
But it's the state polls you really need to look at.... In 2016, they were essentially tied in PA, WI, and NC. Usually with him leading. This year its different. Biden is only currently behind in NC and that's by 1 point. It's even tight in TX! Within the +/- of the polls.
This doesn't guarantee a win for BIden, but he's in far better position at this time of the election than Hillary was in 2016.
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Wilson Mui
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4525
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 9:07am | IP Logged | 9
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Sorry, you're right. Nate Silver of the site
FiveThirtyEight said Biden had 71% chance of winning vs 29%
for Trump. These were the same odd as his forecast in 2016
for Clinton and Trump.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8841
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 10:19am | IP Logged | 10
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Nate Silver didn't account for all the disgruntled Bernie voters in 2016. The ones who decided to protest and vote third party for for the idiot in chief. It was discovered after the 2016 election than many voters switched to the orange one at the last minute. Many of the undecideds and protest voters did in the 2016 election. Since then Silver has updated how he evaluates his forecast.
Which is why that 49/50% mark in the polls is important for Biden. If he can maintain that, odds are extremely good for the country. As I said, outside of one poll in July of 2016, Hillary couldn't maintain that.
Edited by Kevin Brown on 13 August 2020 at 2:22pm
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Jason Czeskleba
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Posts: 4548
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 1:09pm | IP Logged | 11
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Geoffrey Langford wrote:
| Looks like Biden has found his Sarah Palin... |
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Aside from gender (which has been a given since Biden announced his intentions on that months ago) can you cite one single point of similarity between them?
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30897
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| Posted: 13 August 2020 at 1:10pm | IP Logged | 12
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Looks like Biden has found his Sarah Palin...
*****
What an uninformed, ignorant statement.
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