I think both Clinton and Romney have become unelectable.
|Posted: 13 January 2022 at 10:14pm | IP Logged | 6
It will be interesting to see what the Dems do in the next election. 2020 Biden characterized himself as a transition candidate, and clearly implied he would only run for one term, but now he is hinting he may run again.
Anything can change in the next two years, but right now Biden looks very beatable (weakest incumbent since Carter IMO, including Bush 1). It will only get worse for him if Reps retake the House in 2022, because Biden will be unable to accomplish anything in the second half of his term. In 2024 Republicans will portray him as a weak and ineffective leader who failed to beat Covid, and botched the Afghanistan withdrawal.
Dems can see this coming, which sets up another potential problem: Progressives may not support Biden. The progressive wing of the party believes that Dems are losing elections because the candidates backed by the party establishment are too moderate to appeal to the base, and are not able to create enough enthusiasm among liberal voters. The left may oppose Biden in 2024 if they perceive him as too weak.
If things are already stacked against them, Dems can't afford a 2024 primary wherein the main candidates do significant damage to each other.
Question: Who can the Dems run in 2024 that will appeal to both sides of the party, and is willing to challenge the incumbent Democratic president or VP? Or will Biden/Harris get out of the way if their popularity remains low?
For Republicans, I agree it all comes down to Trump. There is no doubt his influence on the party looms large, and that is also problematic. As we saw in 2020, nobody can bring out Democratic voters or push independents to the left better than Trump can, and the part of the party that are not part of his loyal base have turned against him completely. He may be the strongest candidate in Republican primaries, but the worst possible Republican candidate to have in the general election. Republicans have to find someone who can beat Trump in the primaries, or figure out how to keep him from running again.
Interestingly, we seem to be pushing successful candidates in both parties further and further from the center, which is where most of the voters actually reside. In the last two elections, I would have happily supported Democratic centrists like Delaney over Trump, but none could gain any traction in the primaries. Likewise, there were several Republican candidates I would have preferred to DT, but he destroyed them.