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Michael Roberts
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 14812
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 7:43pm | IP Logged | 1
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My prediction is that Ron DeSantis will be the next Howard Dean.
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| If Dems start to coalesce around a more moderate candidate by the time debates and early primaries start, then I think Republicans may also move back towards the middle. |
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Your perception of the Overton Window is completely skewed if you think Democrats want a more “moderate” candidate. Conservatives are so used to labeling everything left of right-of-center as “far left” that they have no idea where the center is. An actual leftist would make them crap their pants.
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John Wickett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 July 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 804
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 8:29pm | IP Logged | 2
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"My prediction is that Ron DeSantis will be the next Howard Dean."
Could be.
"Your perception of the Overton Window is completely skewed if you think Democrats want a more “moderate” candidate."
I think that's belied by what happened in 2020. Most of the Democratic field dropped out before Super Tuesday (even though some of them had a bit of momentum and the means to continue) and supported Biden because he was the one who had the best shot at defeating Bernie Sanders.
I think there are two distinct branches of the Democratic Party; the far left Progressive wing, and a more moderate establishment wing. The moderate wing has absolutely moved further to the left (which is why I left the party) but there is still a distinction.
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Michael Roberts
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 14812
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 10:06pm | IP Logged | 3
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I think there are two distinct branches of the Democratic Party; the far left Progressive wing, and a more moderate establishment wing.
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The Progressive wing wants a mixed-economic system that works to varying degrees in most other countries in the world. Regulated, but still capitalistic.
Far left are Tankies and anarchists.
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John Wickett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 July 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 804
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 10:31pm | IP Logged | 4
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We agree on that. I think the main reason for De Santis's popularity is the perception on the part of Republicans that the tankies and anarchists are taking over the Democratic Party.
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Brian Floyd
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 07 July 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 8348
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 10:55pm | IP Logged | 5
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I can't help but think that we wouldn't have even had to deal with Trump if Biden had chosen to run in the previous election. Because Trump wasn't elected for any other reason than he wasn't Hillary Clinton, and no way she would have won the nomination if Biden had ran.
DeSantis might be worse than Trump if elected. He's similar in many ways. Except he's just evil, not a completely delusional, egomanical narcissist in danger of losing an intelligence contest to a bag of hammers.
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John Wickett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 July 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 804
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| Posted: 28 March 2023 at 11:23pm | IP Logged | 6
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"...no way she would have won the nomination if Biden had ran."
What makes you say that? In 2008, Biden ran way behind Obama, Clinton and Edwards. In 2016 Clinton was still immensely popular among Dems. I think she would have beaten him badly.
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Jason Czeskleba
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Posts: 4548
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 3:21am | IP Logged | 7
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I don't think Biden's performance in 2008 is indicative of how he would have done against Clinton in 2016. In 2016 he was viewed much differently than in 2008. Eight years as Obama's vice president had elevated his stature notably. I think he could have defeated Clinton in a two-person race in 2016. If we factor in Sanders also running, I don't know... the two of them actually may have split the moderate vote enough to given Sanders the victory. Thinking about either scenario makes me sad because I think either Biden or Sanders would have beaten Trump.
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Rebecca Jansen
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 February 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 4496
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 4:54pm | IP Logged | 8
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About the blame Hilary b.s.: even though I have never been able to see the appeal of the Clintons personally, she did receive almost three million votes more than her opponent in the national election which must be an all-time (and likely to stand) record for disparity in popular votes for a 'loser'!
And that is with (yet again)... the emails and private server stuff massively exaggerated (lock her up? cleared twice by a Republican top investigator), the doctored images with fake stories of her health and looping video of any stumble walking (this moves on the Biden being 'too old' now, and talking slowly which is an effect of overcoming a stutter or stammer), was made to answer endless questions however entirely pointless but for theatricality at least twice before cameras on the Benghazi attack (while Republicans had cut embassy security budgets prior to it), and whatever Russia or other enemies were up to helping their guy Trump!
This is where you are. Al Gore perhaps should've fought over Florida longer (you certainly would have much much better transition of information from the previous presidency and the next going into 9/11, Bush Jnr. did a hell of a lot of golfing, remember? I remember things said about he was one of the least on the job presidents before that horrible day). Before Hilary it was Ralph Nader to blame for everything, and currently with gun violence it's doors or trans people or something other than the insane amounts and lethal capabilities of the guns.
I guess people are supposed to have been printing 'Hilary Won' banners and blocking traffic or storming places in righteous outrage? There is a lot more to that than Trump's totally made up claims he and some media are still repeating now (most of the few dead people voting were someone using a relative's ballot for Trump it has turned out, but hey, I saw the man making a 'joke' that people should vote for him more than once before the election - I mean why is that alone not chargeable).
If you get DeSantis it's going to be right back into a huge open door for extreme anti-anything-liberal 'warriors' and Putin (remember the Russian oligarchs on the barred list being at the WH and the inauguration? but they want to investigate Hunter Biden over something around a million dollars?). Also turning on your long-standing allies as just a lot of lousy bums not paying their way... such diplomacy while admiring Korean Kim and such. There will be huge number of LGBT+ people leaving the U.S. and I've already been getting information about Canada to a few friends in some states for it seems like ten years. On the bright side maybe you will enjoy the Dr. Fauci is evil memorabilia gaining in value like those Trump in costumes virtual collector cards?
I'm sure hating Hilary feels real good (are you a 'deplorable', gasp!), I disliked Bill myself (his speech after the WTO stuff in Seattle that time), and Bernie would have fixed everything is a pleasant daydream while things burn down around us... not helpful, just more divisiveness (a lot of people voted for her, let's knock them). Going too far in finding the flaws in these people only helps the often totally empty smoke and mud throwers with their endless hyperbole (which nobody seems interested in ever stopping being distributed and broadcast widely with or without ads for pillows).
If Biden is no good you better hope someone finds somebody better... fast! Few capable and intelligent people are willing to subject themselves to the level of abuse and even threats to family members that one party is enabling to become a major part of the job. May you find another Franklin Roosevelt or Stanley Baldwin in the nick of time because the world definitely needs a healthy U.S.A.
Edited by Rebecca Jansen on 29 March 2023 at 4:57pm
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ron bailey
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 October 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 922
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 5:08pm | IP Logged | 9
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"... I think she would have beaten him badly."
".. no way she would have won the nomination if Biden had ran."
Fascinating. One thing is for sure, Biden would have made sure to campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin and not take them for granted.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132234
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 7:35pm | IP Logged | 10
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...I think either Biden or Sanders would have beaten Trump. •• Biden, maybe, but Sanders is a cartoon--and a Socialist cartoon at that. Americans tend to fear Socialism--mostly without knowing what it is.
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ron bailey
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 October 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 922
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 8:42pm | IP Logged | 11
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One of the only things I take heart in is that a portion of Trump's '16 victory came from those who were willing to gamble on the unknown vs. what they knew Clinton would be bringing to the table. He's used up his benefit-of-the-doubt card among that electorate.
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John Wickett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 July 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 804
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| Posted: 29 March 2023 at 10:22pm | IP Logged | 12
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"...a portion of Trump's '16 victory came from those who were willing to gamble on the unknown vs. what they knew Clinton would be bringing to the table."
I think this is right on the money. One of the interesting things about 2016 is that Trump got votes in places where Republicans don't often win- PA, MI, WI. Among the independents who voted for Trump, and the Dems who flipped, were they voting against Hillary personally, or were they voting against the Washington establishment? I don't know the answer to that question, but I think its the key to predicting how Biden might have done against Trump back then.
I agree with JB about Bernie, but the country as a whole has moved further left since 2016, and Bernie's ideas have become more mainstream. If he hadn't already lost twice, I think he would have a better chance of winning this year than he had in 2016. However, after losing twice, I think he's perceived as someone who can't win, and the window has closed on his opportunity to do so.
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