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Bob Simko
Byrne Robotics Security

Negative Mod

Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 5787
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 11:23am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

GF and I are both healthcare workers...so far neither of us has had any known
exposure risks yet, although next week she goes to NY to specifically manage
ICU ventilator COVID patients.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 7847
Posted: 03 April 2020 at 11:24pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

You dont need a math degree to see estimates of 20k-40k deaths are extremely low. 

*******************************

IF the US mortality rate remains essentially the same (it's about 2.67%), that means the US will have between 1 to 1.5 million people infected to reach your 40,000.  There's not that many infected worldwide at this moment.

What's insane to me are the doctors who are saying there will be 200,000 deaths in the US!  Which means over 7 million infected.  I honestly do not seeing it getting to that point.  It would have gotten there had there been no social distancing or states ordering people to remain home as much as possible.

At best, assuming we maintain the social distancing, I don't see things flattening out in the US until at least May 1, with things getting back to semi-normal by July 1


Edited by Kevin Brown on 03 April 2020 at 11:25pm
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security

Robotmod

Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 33435
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 2:45am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

Kevin, the problem is with states that aren't taking this seriously.  Alabama. Mississippi. Tennessee.  I could go on.  If just some of us take it seriously but the rest don't, the numbers are huge.  If all of us take it seriously, the numbers are fewer but, sorry, still huge.  

We can't have 37 states issue stay at home orders while the governor of Mississippi declares that every business in the state is "essential" thus it's business as usual.  You can't have the governor of Alabama say that they're not "California" and thus won't issue the order even as her state is seeing dramatic rises in infection relative to population.  

We're either all in or all out.  There is no piecemeal approach to this, which is one of many ways the Trump administration has failed us.  
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security

Robotmod

Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 33435
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 2:57am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

I'm a "cut it to you straight" kind of guy.  Tell me the worst case scenario, and I can accept it.  

That said, I'm gonna say that this shit ain't gonna be right in May.  It ain't gonna be right in June.  Hell, it may not be right in July.  And even then?  EVEN THEN? There won't be a vaccine until 2021.  We are, AT BEST, 12 months out from controlling this thing.

At best.  

Personally?  I'd rather know I'm in it for the long haul than think "business as usual" will kick in May 1 or June 1.  We are, ABSOLUTELY 100%, deluding ourselves if we're looking for an outdate pre vaccine.  We just are.  And we're roughly 18 months out. 

Summer 2020 is gone.  There will be idiots who party like it's 1999, but they will be the outliers.  Your travel plans, your vacations, your ideas of rejoining society, partying at bars, watching movies in a theatre and dinning out with hundreds of people?  Poof.  Gone.  

Accept it.  Until there's a vaccine?  Until we have a steadfast way to stop this spread other than staying at home?  It's gone.  The sooner people realize that, the better.  I know "hope springs eternal" but, seriously, we're living in a different world than the one we rang in just four months ago.
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Eric Ladd
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 August 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 3789
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 4:35am | IP Logged | 5 post reply

The lack of a federally mandated and coordinated response is only
pushing the US date to normal, whatever that ends up being, farther
out. There are only three ways to deal with the virus; let it run its course
killing millions, vaccinate the world, or shelter in place killing the virus in
30 days. The first solution is insane, the second is a year away and the
third requires that people be responsible, intelligent and considerate.
So hunker down and wait for a vaccine?

Looks like years of thumbing a nose at authority, proudly embracing
ignorance while denying science and promoting conmen to leadership
roles may come back to bite us.
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Michael Roberts
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 13109
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 7:47am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

IF the US mortality rate remains essentially the same (it's about 2.67%), that means the US will have between 1 to 1.5 million people infected to reach your 40,000.  There's not that many infected worldwide at this moment.

-

At current rates, the number of cases in the US have been doubling every 5 days. The current number of cases is 277k. Also note that the worldwide number was 500k last week. Even with the stay at home and social distancing measures, Id expect the number to top a million in the next week and a half to two weeks. Were still behind in testing. The mortality rate also may get worse as more hospitals become overwhelmed. 
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Doug Centers
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 17 February 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 4076
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 8:06am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

Michigan has now passed California for confirmed cases 3rd in the US.
I live within the big red dot of Wayne Co., haven't left my yard in days (since my layoff). I encourage all to isolate as much as humanly possible.
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Steve De Young
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 01 April 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 3428
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 10:25am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

Keep in mind, the infection numbers are actually the number of positive tests.  It's nowhere near the actual number of infections.  In the earliest phase, only hospitalizations were being tested.  Now its only people presenting severe symptoms.  And roughly 50% of infections are asymptomatic, so any numbers on infections likely need to be tripled or quadrupled to estimate the real number of infections.

That said, the current estimate on the overall mortality rate in the US is 0.66 percent.  That's an average based on the average age of the US population.  The mortality rate for people in their 20's is estimated at 0.03 percent.  The mortality rate for people in their 80's is 7.8 percent.  This is why different communities and different nations are going to have different mortality rates based on their population.  And there are other variables like population density and lung disease rates as well.

These are the numbers that are generating the 98,873 deaths in the US projection.  But because there are so many estimates on the way to that number, you get the big margin of error on either side.
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Mark McKay
Byrne Robotics Member


Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 1847
Posted: 04 April 2020 at 10:34am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

The only way well get back to business as normal pre vaccine is to accept a higher mortality rate and move on, which none of us seem prepared to do.
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