Now that the experts are revising those estimates, why do so many people insist on disbelieving them?
|Posted: 29 March 2020 at 7:31am | IP Logged | 1
I have no problem with scientists revising projections based on incoming data.
I do have a problem with this article projecting 20,000 to 40,000 deaths in the US, because it does not fit with the data available.
The US has a population of 330 million. If 20k die, that is 0.0061% of the population.
It were to use that same % on Italy, which has a population of 60.5 million, then 0.0061% of the population is 3666. But there are already over 10,000 dead in Italy.
0.0061% of the population of Spain is under 3000 dead. But there are already over 6000 dead in Spain.
I think this is a reasonable basis for being sceptical about the numbers in that article in the WSJ.
Regarding the Diamond Princess: yes, the average age of a cruise liner is probably above average. That is a valid argument to estimate the mortality rate lower. Maybe the true rate is 1% or 0.5%. The Diamond Princess remains a useful gauge precisely because it allowed nearly everyone involved to be tested, which is much better information than we currently have with any other sample group.
Edited by Peter Martin on 29 March 2020 at 7:31am