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Marc Baptiste
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3655
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| Posted: 15 February 2021 at 3:54pm | IP Logged | 1
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My own (devastatingly sad) prediction is Trump will never face true civil or criminal justice.
Ex-Presidents of the United States, no matter how vile, have an almost built-in immunity, de facto, if not de jure. There are really two main reasons for this.
The first is obvious - it falls to the succeeding administration to investigate and prosecute any federal offenses the former President and those surrounding him or her may have committed. Well, the rule of reciprocity kicks in here; presidents of either party don't "love' the idea of going after former presidents, as they will someday be a former president themselves! The unspoken rule is I will leave my predecessor alone, and my successor will likewise leave me alone, and so on.
The second is more admirable - it would consume TREMENDOUS time and energy (years in fact) for an administration to investigate and prosecute a former president and those who aided and abetted him or her for crimes against the United States. No administration that actually wants to get things done and do good work for the American people wants to spend so much of their first term doing that.
Just my 2-cents.
Marc
Edited by Marc Baptiste on 15 February 2021 at 11:51pm
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Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 15801
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| Posted: 15 February 2021 at 4:34pm | IP Logged | 2
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Those are cogent and well-reasoned arguments for why Trump is unlikely to face anything at the Federal level, Marc. What do you think about the civil/state level?
It seems New York State prosecutors have been squaring up for a showdown with the Trump organisation for a while.
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Marc Baptiste
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3655
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| Posted: 15 February 2021 at 5:37pm | IP Logged | 3
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Peter,
Certainly an aggressive enough state prosecutor might make the attempt, but I have little faith in the jury system when it comes to actually convicting a former president. It would just take (in a criminal proceeding) 1 juror to hang a jury and given the cult-like status Trump occupies among his followers, and the millions upon millions of them that we know exist in this country - well you do the math.
Marc
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Peter Martin
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 March 2008
Location: Canada
Posts: 15801
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| Posted: 15 February 2021 at 6:38pm | IP Logged | 4
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Yes, good point.
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Rebecca Jansen
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 February 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 4525
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| Posted: 15 February 2021 at 6:56pm | IP Logged | 5
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I can't get soon enough to the day where children's playgrounds will one day ring with jokes like 'what's orange and yellow and poops through it's mouth'. Yes, I have a grand vision!
However before that I definitely expect a series of victory rallies with millions raised to punish in the primaries all those who voted to hold Trump to account. They could've been free of that fear by impeaching the creep, twice, but they seem to be too stupid to understand that, and so they, and others, live in fear he could come back somehow to run again. Pence and his family were targeted and they still don't get it. :^(
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4721
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 2:35pm | IP Logged | 6
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50 ridiculous lines from Trump's CPAC speech
Seriously, I hope the GOP will someday learn from their mistakes... before the very worst happens.
-C!
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30899
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 2:58pm | IP Logged | 7
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They won’t.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132290
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 3:00pm | IP Logged | 8
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To LEARN from mistakes requires RECOGNIZING those mistakes. The former GOP have proven themselves incapable of that.
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Brian Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 28 July 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 30899
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 3:01pm | IP Logged | 9
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The 2020 election was like the Nexus in the STAR TREK:
GENERATIONS movie. They’re all caught up in the big lie Nexus and
will never leave. Meanwhile, we live in actual reality.
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James Woodcock
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 September 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 7622
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 3:02pm | IP Logged | 10
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Not one message change.
Guess the roller coaster of hate is back on
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Marc Baptiste
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3655
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 3:37pm | IP Logged | 11
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You are all correct, however, there was one strange little bump in the road for Trump at CPAC this year - a straw poll taken at the convention for who attendees would like to see as the Republican party nominee in 2024 was won by Trump with 55%. First off this is a poll even Trump could not accuse anyone of rigging and second, it is a poll he should have coasted away with 90-95 plus percent!
I mean this was the convention that had a GOLDEN IDOL of Trump on full display!!
Edited by Marc Baptiste on 01 March 2021 at 3:38pm
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Andrew Bitner
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 7482
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| Posted: 01 March 2021 at 6:24pm | IP Logged | 12
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It's true that a past president has never been charged with a felony and tried in court. However...
Trump basically breaks the rules when it comes to norms and traditions.
It won't surprise me to see him charged as an individual for a number of crimes. It might not be a huge number--charges are only brought when a prosecutor is pretty damn sure he can win the case--but it won't be zero either.
And that's NOT including the swarm of lawsuits facing him, which have a MUCH lower burden of proof. He's much more likely to be personally bankrupted and ruined than see the inside of a jail cell... but both are certainly possible.
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