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Wilson Mui
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4563
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 3:21pm | IP Logged | 1
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From what I understand, many of these pills
are unreliable because people change their
mind or lie. Also, pollsters put more weight
on Republican voters after Trump beat Hillary
Clinton, but now we have seen with recent
Democratic wins, it may have gone too far.
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Mark Haslett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 6551
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 4:04pm | IP Logged | 2
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C— When these f'n Dems said they endorsed and fully supported Biden
100%...we didn't know they had an "unless...." attached to that
"commitment."
**
Sigh.
“Unless he can’t speak coherently and win” is just not understood to rest at
the limit of any reasonable commitment to a politician, huh?
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Brad Wilders
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 December 2008
Posts: 184
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 4:35pm | IP Logged | 3
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"Nate Silver had Hillary Clinton at a 86% chance of winning the election in August of 2016. We all know how that went."
I'm not sure I follow your point. Saying something happens 86% of the time is not disproven because it didn't happen. It had a 14% chance of not happening.
And the odds he put on Trump were higher than every other forecaster at the time, many of which did suggest near certainty that Clinton would win.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 133711
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 4:46pm | IP Logged | 4
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Everything is 50/50. Either it will happen or it won’t.
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4866
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 8:17pm | IP Logged | 5
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“Unless he can’t speak coherently and win” is just not understood to rest at the limit of any reasonable commitment to a politician, huh? ****** Dems could AT LEAST learn about loyalty from the GOP... there's nothing that wavers their "commitment" to their guy, huh?
Regardless, NONE of the 81 million people who voted for Biden would ever vote for Trump. (In the end they want to stop Trump. No matter what.) So, how could he ever have enough votes to win this election?? Am I wrong?? His base hasn't expanded, has it?? (The fix is IN, maybe?)
He would need to make-up the 7 million vote deficit. (81M to 74M)
-C!
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Dave Kopperman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 December 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3507
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 8:24pm | IP Logged | 6
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It's not about 7 million votes. It's about a few thousand votes in some very strategic counties in some very specific states.
And I think one of the things that separates the Democratic Party from the modern GOP is that it's very much not about loyalty to a person - certainly not in the perverse way that Trump has defined it. It's mostly not a cult of personality - except maybe the lionization of RBG, who in retrospect is the belwether of sticking around past the point where anything could be done to turn the ship. Her last decade was spent writing dissents to increasingly conservative rulings, which isn't a legacy I think that she'd want.
Edited by Dave Kopperman on 18 July 2024 at 8:25pm
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4866
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 9:32pm | IP Logged | 7
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This explains a whole lot...
This election has turned into a realty TV show where unless dramatic things happen, people won't tune in.
-C!
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1996
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 9:40pm | IP Logged | 8
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Charles - This has always been the case! If the election already had a heavily favoured winner, the news media wouldn’t say so because then people wouldn’t watch or read the news. But the polls are 50-50! Will Joe Biden step aside? Stay tuned!!
“Here comes the new disaster Here comes the end of days
Next up, the sweet hereafter
We'll tell you all about after this commercial break
Stay tuned for scary monsters
Watch out for rising tides
But first a word from sponsors
Might be a mess but it's a hell of a good time”
Bare Naked Ladies
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Casey Sager
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 750
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 10:22pm | IP Logged | 9
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Think about it, the Right's candidate is a civily liable rapist, convicted felon, stole top secret documents and then lied constantly to the governement about their return and to top it off, attempted a coup.
Biden is losing in the polls to THAT guy. Why, because it is what it is or because most reasonable people can see he's a walking potato and it's not going to magically get better.
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David Allen Perrin
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 April 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 3582
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 10:35pm | IP Logged | 10
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The walking potato is governing as President rather effectively though.
And Trump is barely mentioned as the criminal he is by the media. They operate as though none of that matters. Lester Holt literally trying to blame Biden for heated rhetoric in that recent interview!
And the polls this far out aren’t always particularly accurate. The Democrats SHOULD galvanize around Biden and push back on the narrative being overly pushed by the media. But that’s obviously not gonna happen.
I firmly believe that if the media collectively decided that Trump must be reported on as the vile POS he is, and to contrast that with Biden’s relative effectiveness as President (81 year old proclivities notwithstanding), the polls would likely be a bit different.
Peter Hicks hit on it. The possibility of Trump winning in the air keeps everything on edge. Keeps the clicks going. Keeps the revenue up.
Edited by David Allen Perrin on 18 July 2024 at 10:36pm
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Casey Sager
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 750
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| Posted: 18 July 2024 at 10:40pm | IP Logged | 11
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Sticking our fingers in our ears and going lalala doesn't change reality.
Bidens approval was super low before the debate and Democrats shouldn't defend the obvious truth that HE can't even defend for himself.
But hey, lets whine and gnash our teeth that everyone is against us and that magically Biden will win in Nov.
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4866
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| Posted: 19 July 2024 at 2:48pm | IP Logged | 12
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I read Trump’s RNC speech was absolutely awful.
Just rambling, incoherent nonsense. The Dems and media asking Biden to step aside should be embarrassed.
In reality, the silence will be deafening.
-C!
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