Posted: 30 May 2025 at 12:47am | IP Logged | 4
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And that’s the problem isn’t it? There is no apparent solution. If there was, it would have been enacted by now.
Option 1 - If the west just keeps on giving arms to Ukraine but not directly participating in the war, then the war will continue to grind on. Both sides have defensive capabilities that far out match the other side’s offensive power. Ukrainians will continue to die, their cities will suffer more damage, Russian soldiers will die, and some Russian cities will be hit by long range weapons. This all sounds very negative, but the upside for the west is that in exchange for a very small fraction of their military budget, they have gained enormous intelligence about Russian capabilities, those capabilities have been massively degraded and will take years to recover, and we are finding out about how drones have revolutionized war. Putin is ok with a forever war. Any population tends to rally around its government while at war. And any dissent can be labelled treason and punished as such.
Option 2 - One or more NATO counties actively goes in and fights on Ukraine’s side. Having seen how pathetic the Russians are, they would only last a matter of weeks against NATO. This is the only scenario where Russia is forced out of all occupied territory. The huge risk is that Russia responds with nuclear weapons. I sincerely doubt they would if it was clear the war was only about liberating Ukraine, but who knows.
Option 3 - The west abandons Ukraine. Without our support, the Russians would gradually wear down the Ukraine military and take over the entire country. At the point at least, the bloodshed ends. But now the west must deal with an emboldened Putin who thinks the west is too chicken to make war with him. Guaranteed he will then invade Moldova.
Is there a fundamentally different 4th option I’m not seeing?
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