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John, his commets against Bragg and Judge Merchan can have an effect as follows:

4) He's gambling that it doesn't really matter if he's convicted of this one because he'll soon be pre-occupied with much more serious charges stemming from the Jan 6. and Georgia cases, not to mention the Carroll case where he has to testify. 

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I think I said up thread that this may be the case that Trump will get so focused on this that the other cases will hit him, and he wont be ready for it. Trying to juggle 4 legal battles while trying to run a campaign? 

Good luck.

I don't think this is a factor.  If Trump's attorneys win a dismissal there will be serious egg on Bragg's face, and Trump's whole narrative will be bolstered.  

From what we've seen, this is a risky case for the prosecutor to bring, because the statutes of limitations have run on the underlying offenses.  If Bragg can't prove Trump intended to commit fraud AND that the purpose of the fraud was to cover up another crime, then this case will be dismissed.   Because of the risk, and because of the potential impact on the election if the case is dismissed, filing these charges would be a DUMB move if this were politically motivated, or if he just wanted to be the first person to charge Trump.  

For those reasons, I think Bragg believes he has come up with a strategy that will enable him to win.

"I very much doubt he’s 'juggling' anything. He seems utterly incapable of acknowledging any kind of wrongdoing on his part. I’m sure he can’t imagine himself in any kind of legal danger."

Trump is smart enough to understand the legal jeopardy he's in, and he's got great lawyers to explain it to him.  I think his ego creates a huge blind spot that impacts his judgment, because he is arrogant enough to believe he can always escape accountability.  

Unfortunately, so far he has always been proven right.  I thought his campaign was finished when the tape of his comments on the bus came to light, but somehow he beat that.  Since then there have been several instances when I thought there would be accountability, but he has dodged them all.  

When someone is told: this is usually a misdemeanour, but in this specific contingency it's a felony, I think most people take a kind of approach of averages and are reticent to go beyond the norm.

That said?  I agree with most.  He’ll not spend a day in jail.